Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CUBS         23 18 233 183  0.164 22.763    5  0.183    5  0.176    1  0.263    3 0.5336    3  0.720    1  0.518   17  0.009    7  0.205
METS         26 15 199 132  0.025 20.410    3  0.205    3  0.200    2  0.257    2 0.5361   20  0.338   12  0.160    1  0.354   28 -0.326
TIGERS       26 15 214 142  0.005 19.970    4  0.197    4  0.191    3  0.256    5 0.5305   11  0.576    3  0.372   10  0.141   26 -0.268
YANKEES      23 17 235 160 -0.015 19.314    8  0.096    8  0.093    4  0.240    8 0.5183    6  0.675    2  0.451   16  0.030   10  0.151
DODGERS      27 14 228 170 -0.001 19.900    1  0.225    1  0.222    5  0.205    1 0.5375   15  0.518    5  0.266    9  0.143    6  0.206
PADRES       25 14 180 132  0.021 19.263    2  0.209    2  0.204    6  0.186    4 0.5318   18  0.377   14  0.123    4  0.250   29 -0.476 P
GIANTS       24 17 191 156  0.060 21.041    6  0.154    6  0.150    7  0.145    7 0.5230   16  0.439   13  0.135    7  0.155   24 -0.225
ASTROS       20 19 163 142  0.067 20.244   13  0.053   13  0.053    8  0.119   13 0.5067   17  0.419   15  0.092    8  0.147   18 -0.079 P
CARDINALS    22 19 194 170  0.007 20.270   14  0.051   14  0.051    9  0.107   14 0.5061    4  0.702    4  0.345   22 -0.130   25 -0.267
PHILLIES     24 16 191 168 -0.007 19.556    7  0.137    7  0.136   10  0.078    6 0.5256   21  0.337   18 -0.020    5  0.175    4  0.316
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BREWERS      20 21 184 181  0.064 21.283   16  0.019   18  0.016   11  0.070   20 0.4969   10  0.627    8  0.234   19 -0.093   27 -0.310
DIAMONDBACKS 21 20 206 208  0.096 21.802   10  0.075   10  0.071   12  0.069   11 0.5113    8  0.638    7  0.243   20 -0.106   13  0.079
TWINS        21 20 164 145 -0.002 20.198   18  0.012   16  0.017   13  0.062   17 0.5007   22  0.319   19 -0.051    6  0.174   16 -0.071
RED SOX      22 20 205 176 -0.079 19.413   19 -0.014   19 -0.012   14  0.045   19 0.4990    9  0.637    9  0.218   21 -0.128    9  0.170
MARINERS     22 17 192 175 -0.025 18.882    9  0.078    9  0.073   15  0.027    9 0.5158    5  0.701    6  0.263   25 -0.209   23 -0.220 P
RANGERS      20 21 140 149  0.057 21.256   15  0.019   17  0.017   16  0.004   15 0.5044   28  0.096   24 -0.283    3  0.290   22 -0.202
REDS         20 22 198 174 -0.062 19.747   22 -0.073   22 -0.069   17 -0.006   22 0.4873   14  0.530   16  0.066   18 -0.078   19 -0.082
BRAVES       19 21 157 159  0.007 19.954   21 -0.043   21 -0.034   18 -0.015   21 0.4950   24  0.288   21 -0.153   13  0.123   17 -0.072
ROYALS       24 18 143 137 -0.063 19.767   11  0.074   11  0.069   19 -0.017   12 0.5078   29  0.011   27 -0.363    2  0.330   20 -0.096
ATHLETICS    21 20 180 218  0.003 20.457   17  0.014   15  0.019   20 -0.073   18 0.4998   13  0.534   17  0.002   23 -0.149    3  0.347
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAYS         18 22 150 159 -0.042 19.295   23 -0.093   23 -0.090   21 -0.085   23 0.4794   25  0.225   23 -0.274   14  0.104   12  0.126
BLUE JAYS    20 20 156 178 -0.037 19.365   20 -0.034   20 -0.020   22 -0.089   16 0.5010   27  0.180   26 -0.313   12  0.134    5  0.247
GUARDIANS    23 17 164 181 -0.068 18.795   12  0.066   12  0.067   23 -0.093   10 0.5142    2  0.755   10  0.199   28 -0.384   30 -0.490
WHITE SOX    12 29 139 174 -0.021 20.155   29 -0.299   29 -0.309   24 -0.167   29 0.4483   26  0.195   28 -0.379   15  0.044   15  0.007
MARLINS      15 24 164 233 -0.004 19.630   25 -0.164   25 -0.158   25 -0.230   27 0.4733    1  0.867   11  0.178   30 -0.638   21 -0.150 P
NATIONALS    17 24 171 225 -0.080 19.259   26 -0.168   26 -0.163   26 -0.235   24 0.4760   12  0.536   22 -0.157   26 -0.312    8  0.186
PIRATES      14 27 127 183 -0.023 20.254   28 -0.235   28 -0.236   27 -0.235   28 0.4604   30 -0.026   30 -0.608   11  0.138   11  0.145
ORIOLES      15 24 147 212 -0.018 19.304   27 -0.174   27 -0.169   28 -0.242   26 0.4757   19  0.369   25 -0.312   24 -0.171    2  0.471 P
ANGELS       16 23 144 209 -0.030 19.192   24 -0.145   24 -0.138   29 -0.251   25 0.4758    7  0.644   20 -0.071   29 -0.431   14  0.016 P
ROCKIES       7 33 133 261  0.042 21.064   30 -0.424   30 -0.444   30 -0.435   30 0.4277   23  0.308   29 -0.556   27 -0.313    1  0.658

NL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DODGERS      27 14 228 170 -0.001 19.900    1  0.225    1  0.222    5  0.205    1 0.5375   15  0.518    5  0.266    9  0.143    6  0.206
PADRES       25 14 180 132  0.021 19.263    2  0.209    2  0.204    6  0.186    4 0.5318   18  0.377   14  0.123    4  0.250   29 -0.476 P
GIANTS       24 17 191 156  0.060 21.041    6  0.154    6  0.150    7  0.145    7 0.5230   16  0.439   13  0.135    7  0.155   24 -0.225
DIAMONDBACKS 21 20 206 208  0.096 21.802   10  0.075   10  0.071   12  0.069   11 0.5113    8  0.638    7  0.243   20 -0.106   13  0.079
ROCKIES       7 33 133 261  0.042 21.064   30 -0.424   30 -0.444   30 -0.435   30 0.4277   23  0.308   29 -0.556   27 -0.313    1  0.658

NL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CUBS         23 18 233 183  0.164 22.763    5  0.183    5  0.176    1  0.263    3 0.5336    3  0.720    1  0.518   17  0.009    7  0.205
CARDINALS    22 19 194 170  0.007 20.270   14  0.051   14  0.051    9  0.107   14 0.5061    4  0.702    4  0.345   22 -0.130   25 -0.267
BREWERS      20 21 184 181  0.064 21.283   16  0.019   18  0.016   11  0.070   20 0.4969   10  0.627    8  0.234   19 -0.093   27 -0.310
REDS         20 22 198 174 -0.062 19.747   22 -0.073   22 -0.069   17 -0.006   22 0.4873   14  0.530   16  0.066   18 -0.078   19 -0.082
PIRATES      14 27 127 183 -0.023 20.254   28 -0.235   28 -0.236   27 -0.235   28 0.4604   30 -0.026   30 -0.608   11  0.138   11  0.145

NL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
METS         26 15 199 132  0.025 20.410    3  0.205    3  0.200    2  0.257    2 0.5361   20  0.338   12  0.160    1  0.354   28 -0.326
PHILLIES     24 16 191 168 -0.007 19.556    7  0.137    7  0.136   10  0.078    6 0.5256   21  0.337   18 -0.020    5  0.175    4  0.316
BRAVES       19 21 157 159  0.007 19.954   21 -0.043   21 -0.034   18 -0.015   21 0.4950   24  0.288   21 -0.153   13  0.123   17 -0.072
MARLINS      15 24 164 233 -0.004 19.630   25 -0.164   25 -0.158   25 -0.230   27 0.4733    1  0.867   11  0.178   30 -0.638   21 -0.150 P
NATIONALS    17 24 171 225 -0.080 19.259   26 -0.168   26 -0.163   26 -0.235   24 0.4760   12  0.536   22 -0.157   26 -0.312    8  0.186

AL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ASTROS       20 19 163 142  0.067 20.244   13  0.053   13  0.053    8  0.119   13 0.5067   17  0.419   15  0.092    8  0.147   18 -0.079 P
MARINERS     22 17 192 175 -0.025 18.882    9  0.078    9  0.073   15  0.027    9 0.5158    5  0.701    6  0.263   25 -0.209   23 -0.220 P
RANGERS      20 21 140 149  0.057 21.256   15  0.019   17  0.017   16  0.004   15 0.5044   28  0.096   24 -0.283    3  0.290   22 -0.202
ATHLETICS    21 20 180 218  0.003 20.457   17  0.014   15  0.019   20 -0.073   18 0.4998   13  0.534   17  0.002   23 -0.149    3  0.347
ANGELS       16 23 144 209 -0.030 19.192   24 -0.145   24 -0.138   29 -0.251   25 0.4758    7  0.644   20 -0.071   29 -0.431   14  0.016 P

AL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TIGERS       26 15 214 142  0.005 19.970    4  0.197    4  0.191    3  0.256    5 0.5305   11  0.576    3  0.372   10  0.141   26 -0.268
TWINS        21 20 164 145 -0.002 20.198   18  0.012   16  0.017   13  0.062   17 0.5007   22  0.319   19 -0.051    6  0.174   16 -0.071
ROYALS       24 18 143 137 -0.063 19.767   11  0.074   11  0.069   19 -0.017   12 0.5078   29  0.011   27 -0.363    2  0.330   20 -0.096
GUARDIANS    23 17 164 181 -0.068 18.795   12  0.066   12  0.067   23 -0.093   10 0.5142    2  0.755   10  0.199   28 -0.384   30 -0.490
WHITE SOX    12 29 139 174 -0.021 20.155   29 -0.299   29 -0.309   24 -0.167   29 0.4483   26  0.195   28 -0.379   15  0.044   15  0.007

AL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
YANKEES      23 17 235 160 -0.015 19.314    8  0.096    8  0.093    4  0.240    8 0.5183    6  0.675    2  0.451   16  0.030   10  0.151
RED SOX      22 20 205 176 -0.079 19.413   19 -0.014   19 -0.012   14  0.045   19 0.4990    9  0.637    9  0.218   21 -0.128    9  0.170
RAYS         18 22 150 159 -0.042 19.295   23 -0.093   23 -0.090   21 -0.085   23 0.4794   25  0.225   23 -0.274   14  0.104   12  0.126
BLUE JAYS    20 20 156 178 -0.037 19.365   20 -0.034   20 -0.020   22 -0.089   16 0.5010   27  0.180   26 -0.313   12  0.134    5  0.247
ORIOLES      15 24 147 212 -0.018 19.304   27 -0.174   27 -0.169   28 -0.242   26 0.4757   19  0.369   25 -0.312   24 -0.171    2  0.471 P

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NL WEST    104  98 0.515    1  0.062
NL CENTRAL  99 107 0.481    2  0.062
AL CENTRAL 106  99 0.517    3  0.012
AL EAST     98 103 0.488    4 -0.041
NL EAST    101 100 0.502    5 -0.045
AL WEST     99 100 0.497    6 -0.052

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.114 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.016 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Mon May 12 05:30:09 2025
games through: Sun May 11 2025

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