Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CUBS         58 39 516 394  0.017 48.153    1  0.175    1  0.155    1  0.195    1 0.5254   12  0.578    3  0.296   11  0.095   12  0.047
TIGERS       59 39 482 397 -0.020 47.273    2  0.148    2  0.139    3  0.136    2 0.5230   13  0.566    7  0.225   17  0.047   19 -0.055
DODGERS      58 40 518 451 -0.023 47.186    3  0.120    3  0.122    7  0.083    3 0.5193   10  0.591    9  0.197   18 -0.030    4  0.297
BREWERS      57 40 459 376 -0.016 46.944    4  0.117    4  0.119    4  0.123    5 0.5184    6  0.666    2  0.309   19 -0.062   28 -0.460
BLUE JAYS    56 41 444 423  0.007 47.940    5  0.114    5  0.117   12  0.055    4 0.5192   18  0.380   18 -0.023    8  0.132    5  0.244
ASTROS       56 41 419 368 -0.007 47.358    6  0.102    6  0.108    8  0.083    6 0.5182   17  0.397   15  0.021    6  0.146   16 -0.028
PHILLIES     55 42 443 381 -0.026 46.586    7  0.068    7  0.084    6  0.093    7 0.5140   28  0.195   23 -0.135    1  0.322    2  0.448
METS         55 43 430 389 -0.022 47.303    8  0.058    8  0.078   13  0.050   10 0.5109   20  0.357   19 -0.047    5  0.147   20 -0.068
YANKEES      53 44 504 397  0.002 47.629    9  0.055    9  0.070    2  0.165    8 0.5134    9  0.595    4  0.282   16  0.048   18 -0.053
PADRES       53 44 390 378  0.001 47.742   10  0.051   10  0.069   16  0.024   11 0.5106   25  0.292   22 -0.127    4  0.175   23 -0.089
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MARINERS     52 45 457 420  0.016 48.287   11  0.045   11  0.062   10  0.063    9 0.5110    1  0.757    1  0.339   26 -0.214   29 -0.508
RED SOX      53 46 492 434 -0.000 48.597   12  0.038   12  0.052    9  0.080   12 0.5073    7  0.659    5  0.259   21 -0.098   13  0.007
CARDINALS    51 47 447 434  0.022 49.058   13  0.030   13  0.042   15  0.035   13 0.5064    8  0.652    8  0.206   23 -0.136   24 -0.114
GIANTS       52 46 399 386 -0.017 47.584   14  0.026   14  0.035   18  0.005   14 0.5057   27  0.232   26 -0.194    3  0.205   15 -0.016
RAYS         51 47 460 389  0.009 48.452   15  0.025   15  0.035    5  0.100   15 0.5055   15  0.480   12  0.110   13  0.090   14  0.007
REDS         51 47 449 414 -0.011 47.728   16  0.019   16  0.023   14  0.037   16 0.5027   11  0.586   11  0.145   20 -0.071   25 -0.142
GUARDIANS    47 49 361 404  0.025 48.271   17  0.005   17 -0.001   22 -0.057   17 0.5012   23  0.340   24 -0.169   15  0.054   21 -0.071
ANGELS       48 49 424 485  0.011 48.285   19  0.001   18 -0.002   24 -0.085   18 0.5004   14  0.548   16 -0.012   24 -0.157   11  0.108
RANGERS      49 49 395 346 -0.005 47.931   18  0.005   19 -0.003   11  0.059   19 0.5000   19  0.378   17 -0.020    7  0.138   30 -0.517
TWINS        47 50 406 416  0.007 47.990   20 -0.006   20 -0.019   19 -0.000   20 0.4974   21  0.353   20 -0.101    9  0.100    6  0.233
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DIAMONDBACKS 48 50 500 491 -0.014 47.658   21 -0.008   21 -0.024   17  0.017   21 0.4961    4  0.702    6  0.238   25 -0.204    9  0.112
ROYALS       47 51 335 364  0.008 48.657   22 -0.009   22 -0.025   21 -0.055   22 0.4949   26  0.288   27 -0.210   10  0.099   26 -0.300
MARLINS      45 51 416 470 -0.007 47.116   23 -0.026   23 -0.051   25 -0.088   23 0.4905    2  0.755   10  0.186   29 -0.362   27 -0.352
ORIOLES      43 53 394 494  0.018 48.127   24 -0.040   24 -0.066   26 -0.138   24 0.4885   16  0.424   25 -0.177   22 -0.098    3  0.305
BRAVES       43 53 395 389 -0.019 46.530   25 -0.060   25 -0.087   20 -0.015   25 0.4860   22  0.345   21 -0.122   12  0.092   22 -0.072
PIRATES      39 59 327 389  0.054 50.446   26 -0.112   26 -0.119   23 -0.073   27 0.4806   30  0.049   29 -0.409    2  0.264    8  0.121
ATHLETICS    41 58 423 559  0.013 49.451   27 -0.113   27 -0.120   28 -0.162   26 0.4810    5  0.670   14  0.027   28 -0.352    7  0.230
NATIONALS    38 59 419 526 -0.015 47.456   28 -0.190   28 -0.169   29 -0.194   28 0.4728    3  0.705   13  0.029   30 -0.417   17 -0.032
WHITE SOX    33 65 342 431  0.003 48.529   29 -0.245   29 -0.240   27 -0.152   29 0.4620   29  0.180   28 -0.392   14  0.087   10  0.111
ROCKIES      23 74 342 593  0.025 49.200   30 -0.395   30 -0.381   30 -0.390   30 0.4375   24  0.334   30 -0.506   27 -0.274    1  0.605
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

NL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DODGERS      58 40 518 451 -0.023 47.186    3  0.120    3  0.122    7  0.083    3 0.5193   10  0.591    9  0.197   18 -0.030    4  0.297
PADRES       53 44 390 378  0.001 47.742   10  0.051   10  0.069   16  0.024   11 0.5106   25  0.292   22 -0.127    4  0.175   23 -0.089
GIANTS       52 46 399 386 -0.017 47.584   14  0.026   14  0.035   18  0.005   14 0.5057   27  0.232   26 -0.194    3  0.205   15 -0.016
DIAMONDBACKS 48 50 500 491 -0.014 47.658   21 -0.008   21 -0.024   17  0.017   21 0.4961    4  0.702    6  0.238   25 -0.204    9  0.112
ROCKIES      23 74 342 593  0.025 49.200   30 -0.395   30 -0.381   30 -0.390   30 0.4375   24  0.334   30 -0.506   27 -0.274    1  0.605

NL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CUBS         58 39 516 394  0.017 48.153    1  0.175    1  0.155    1  0.195    1 0.5254   12  0.578    3  0.296   11  0.095   12  0.047
BREWERS      57 40 459 376 -0.016 46.944    4  0.117    4  0.119    4  0.123    5 0.5184    6  0.666    2  0.309   19 -0.062   28 -0.460
CARDINALS    51 47 447 434  0.022 49.058   13  0.030   13  0.042   15  0.035   13 0.5064    8  0.652    8  0.206   23 -0.136   24 -0.114
REDS         51 47 449 414 -0.011 47.728   16  0.019   16  0.023   14  0.037   16 0.5027   11  0.586   11  0.145   20 -0.071   25 -0.142
PIRATES      39 59 327 389  0.054 50.446   26 -0.112   26 -0.119   23 -0.073   27 0.4806   30  0.049   29 -0.409    2  0.264    8  0.121

NL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PHILLIES     55 42 443 381 -0.026 46.586    7  0.068    7  0.084    6  0.093    7 0.5140   28  0.195   23 -0.135    1  0.322    2  0.448
METS         55 43 430 389 -0.022 47.303    8  0.058    8  0.078   13  0.050   10 0.5109   20  0.357   19 -0.047    5  0.147   20 -0.068
MARLINS      45 51 416 470 -0.007 47.116   23 -0.026   23 -0.051   25 -0.088   23 0.4905    2  0.755   10  0.186   29 -0.362   27 -0.352
BRAVES       43 53 395 389 -0.019 46.530   25 -0.060   25 -0.087   20 -0.015   25 0.4860   22  0.345   21 -0.122   12  0.092   22 -0.072
NATIONALS    38 59 419 526 -0.015 47.456   28 -0.190   28 -0.169   29 -0.194   28 0.4728    3  0.705   13  0.029   30 -0.417   17 -0.032

AL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ASTROS       56 41 419 368 -0.007 47.358    6  0.102    6  0.108    8  0.083    6 0.5182   17  0.397   15  0.021    6  0.146   16 -0.028
MARINERS     52 45 457 420  0.016 48.287   11  0.045   11  0.062   10  0.063    9 0.5110    1  0.757    1  0.339   26 -0.214   29 -0.508
ANGELS       48 49 424 485  0.011 48.285   19  0.001   18 -0.002   24 -0.085   18 0.5004   14  0.548   16 -0.012   24 -0.157   11  0.108
RANGERS      49 49 395 346 -0.005 47.931   18  0.005   19 -0.003   11  0.059   19 0.5000   19  0.378   17 -0.020    7  0.138   30 -0.517
ATHLETICS    41 58 423 559  0.013 49.451   27 -0.113   27 -0.120   28 -0.162   26 0.4810    5  0.670   14  0.027   28 -0.352    7  0.230

AL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TIGERS       59 39 482 397 -0.020 47.273    2  0.148    2  0.139    3  0.136    2 0.5230   13  0.566    7  0.225   17  0.047   19 -0.055
GUARDIANS    47 49 361 404  0.025 48.271   17  0.005   17 -0.001   22 -0.057   17 0.5012   23  0.340   24 -0.169   15  0.054   21 -0.071
TWINS        47 50 406 416  0.007 47.990   20 -0.006   20 -0.019   19 -0.000   20 0.4974   21  0.353   20 -0.101    9  0.100    6  0.233
ROYALS       47 51 335 364  0.008 48.657   22 -0.009   22 -0.025   21 -0.055   22 0.4949   26  0.288   27 -0.210   10  0.099   26 -0.300
WHITE SOX    33 65 342 431  0.003 48.529   29 -0.245   29 -0.240   27 -0.152   29 0.4620   29  0.180   28 -0.392   14  0.087   10  0.111

AL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BLUE JAYS    56 41 444 423  0.007 47.940    5  0.114    5  0.117   12  0.055    4 0.5192   18  0.380   18 -0.023    8  0.132    5  0.244
YANKEES      53 44 504 397  0.002 47.629    9  0.055    9  0.070    2  0.165    8 0.5134    9  0.595    4  0.282   16  0.048   18 -0.053
RED SOX      53 46 492 434 -0.000 48.597   12  0.038   12  0.052    9  0.080   12 0.5073    7  0.659    5  0.259   21 -0.098   13  0.007
RAYS         51 47 460 389  0.009 48.452   15  0.025   15  0.035    5  0.100   15 0.5055   15  0.480   12  0.110   13  0.090   14  0.007
ORIOLES      43 53 394 494  0.018 48.127   24 -0.040   24 -0.066   26 -0.138   24 0.4885   16  0.424   25 -0.177   22 -0.098    3  0.305

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NL CENTRAL 256 232 0.525    1  0.093
AL EAST    256 231 0.526    2  0.077
AL WEST    246 242 0.504    3 -0.012
AL CENTRAL 233 254 0.478    4 -0.038
NL EAST    236 248 0.488    5 -0.045
NL WEST    234 254 0.480    6 -0.072

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.080 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.012 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jul 19 05:30:10 2025
games through: Fri Jul 18 2025

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